Friday, March 28, 2008

When Will The Credit Crunch Hit GE?

Over one third of GE's revenue is derived from financial services. To date, the company has apparently been immune from the current crisis currently devastating the financial sector. Apart from a small write down related to the closure of their fledgling subprime unit, GE has taken no write downs or losses on their financial activities. How long can this last?

Yes, Immelt has been rampantly buying stock. But so have executives at Wachovia in the 40's.

Yes, GE is international, industrial, and a conglomerate. But maybe that's the reason the stock has held up relatively well over the past six months.

There are plenty of arguments in GE's favor, but with credit contracting, the velocity of money slowing, the the financial world intertwined with a myriad of derivatives, doesn't it seem plausible that there might be some fall out coming?

The recent spike in GE's stock price is just begging to be sold.

5 comments:

Gunners said...

Don't expect any Mortgage writedowns from GE. They don't depend on securitizations for their mortgages. they have an extensive balance sheet, and they are a more conservative lender. They are fine, as far as writedowns go. (this is mostly commercial real estate based)

Gunners said...

ps.

I linked you on my blogroll

JakeGint said...

Are you saying GE doesn't package their mortgages in traditional MBS offerings?

I know they sell their own debt... how would a deteriorating mortgage portfolio be impacted whether it wsa securitized or not? The value is still tied to the portfolio, no?

Are you saying they are better underwriters?

In my experience, they are only better at sucking out fees in "last lender choice" status deals.

JakeGint said...

BTW-- nice site, SMB.

Gunners said...

yes, they have been better underwriters, and they don't need to create room on their balance sheet by selling, because they are balance sheet lenders. that's why you don't see life companies writing shit down on mortgages, they just hold them. Maybe 5,7,10 years from now, they won't be able to refinance if the market sucks, but for now, they are fine to hold their loans, and get paid on them. They do not package for CMBS. they did a little bit last year, but they stopped the program

again, all commercial re based. i don't know about any of their resi stuff.

 

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